Breaking news tonight from a long time personal friend that works in Cupertino directly with members of the elite Apple design group. Sadly, that group will never spill the beans on what they are designing, but earlier this week, one of the members of that group disclosed that Apple TV sales are absolutely through the roof, far beyond what Apple had planned.
Specifically, orders have already exceeded the original 100,000 order that Apple had placed with Inventec, and Apple is preparing to place a second order for twice that number. Apple is now planning to sell over a million Apple TV devices leading up to the 2007 holiday season, and at least that many again during the Thanksgiving – Christmas period this year.
Apple TV is succeeding where Windows XP Media Center has failed due to its simplicity and considerably lower price. It is odd to consider Apple to be in a value market, but strangely, that is exactly what Apple TV has become. You see, its competitor is not the various network vendor products, as they come no where close to the interface and simplicity of the Apple TV; further, they don’t have the iTunes store behind them providing content. Apple TV competes directly with Windows XP Media Center, and comes in at 25% of the price! While Windows XP Media Center has become a replacement for the terrible Windows XP Home, the actual sales of devices destined to be connected to TVs in family rooms, has been very poor. Their high price, along with the mess of patching, securing and maintaining a full Windows PC in the living room is not a very attractive proposition.
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Apple Recon 
That’s great news, but not much of a surprise. I bought AppleTV as soon as I could the day after the keynote. I bet with all the attention around iPhone, a lot of Mac fans went to the Apple Store and found the AppleTV ready for purchase, even while they had to wait for iPhone. Credit cards in hand, they made a consolation pick – and a good one.
I’ve worked for a PC company assembling PCs, and I was quite surprised there actually were Some orders on the media centre PCs. They are so rare I only read about them. The problem, I think, is, again, the integration. When Apple TV allows you to just plug in and watch, the media centre PC has all sorts of incompatabilities, from different remotes for TV tuner cards and XP MCE itself, to certain TV tuners not working with MCE at all, while claiming to on the box.
Oh, how many long days have we spent moving the tuners around the motherboard, and reinstalling Windows after calling Microsoft numerous times when their update would overwrite a proprietary driver, and make the device unusable under MCE. Despite the nerd status around friends, I am so much happier on the Apple side of things. I do keep a few PCs around though, just to stay sane and not completely spoilt :).
Like the weblog, keep it coming!
I think there is a big difference between Apple TV and Microsoft Media Center: you can’t watch TV on an Apple TV. In that sense, you have to compare it to the Media Center Extenders, not to Media Center. You still need a Mac (or PC with iTunes) as your base station. And with no TV transmission, you’ll have to buy every episode of every TV series you want to watch.
Besides the fact you’ll have to buy the content, there’s also a lack of content outside the US. Sure, there are legal issues and such, but the biggests economic markets are outside the US. And those consumers can walk into a local equivalent of Best Buy and pick up a new Media Center PC, that will work with their cable, satellite or FTA subscription.
Don’t get me wrong, I switched to Mac myself and love their products, but I have serious doubts about the success of this product outside the US market.
Great blog
[…] Apple Recon Breaking news tonight from a long time personal friend that works in Cupertino directly with members of the elite Apple design group. Sadly, that group will never spill the beans on what they are designing, but earlier this week, one of the members of that group disclosed that Apple TV sales are absolutely through the roof, far beyond what Apple had planned. […]
Apple TV Blowing Away Expectations
Breaking news tonight from a long time personal friend that works in Cupertino directly with members of the elite Apple design group. Sadly, that group will never spill the beans on what they are designing, but earlier this week, one of the members of th
AppleTV Could Outshine iPhone for Apple
recent news says that the product’s success has outstripped even Apple’s lofty expectations…
The article is simply reconfirming what is shown on the Apple site sales position and the past rumors about great Apple Tv sales. The numbers and statements appear to be reasonable and logical if Apple Tv sales are second only to MacBooks.
If Apple can sell a million Apple TVs before next Christmas it will be a great sales tool and demonstration base for Apple TV marketing and what it is and does. It will lead up to selling another million or more during the Christmas season.
The price of $300 positions it and makes it a great Christmas gift for the family. It is a great way to show photos on their new large screen TV’s. Coupled with Leopard, and its visual magic software, it may not be the next iPod, but it may have an even greater halo effect on new Mac computer sales and converts than iPod has had because you will need a MAC to take full advantage of Apple TV’s power.
I can see it as one of the leading products sold for Christmas 2008 after several million are sold stimulating demand. With a zillion digital still and movies cameras out there, even Grandma will beable to make photo and movie effects, that we all waited in line to see in StarWars. on her own large screen TV during Christmas gatherings.
The teens will love the music/moving graphics played through Dad’s new surround sound stereo and on the big screen. It will turn their homes in to 80’s discos. Apple TV will be a leading seller Christmas 08′.
smokingun,
I have an EyeTV 500 which lets me use my Mac as a DVR complete with program guide, scheduling, editing, and watching HD content being broadcast via antenna or cable. EyeTV has an export capability that with one click will convert the HD content to pretty much any format using the codecs in Quicktime. For example, I do this everyday. After automtically recording scheduled shows I like, I edit out all the commecials which takes about 2 minutes to do.
Then I hit a button with an iPod icon on it. This exports the edited TV show, using my convertion preferences, to the .mp4 format at the maximum resolution allowed on the iPod (640 x 480 = 307200). The total number of pixels is the key part of the equation, not the horizontal and vertical resolution. As long as the total is under 307200 any combination of H & V resolutions are possible. Since HD is widescreen (16:9) I can get 720 x 426 with no problem. I export all the TV shows I’ve recorded right before bedtime and let EyeTV do its thing while I’m sleeping.
EyeTV will export the converted video and import it into iTunes automatically. If I have my iPod hooked up it will also transfer the show from iTunes onto my iPod. All this after I hit just one button in EyeTV. When I wake up its all done and ready to go.
Now I can watch the TV show on my iPod (on the metro ride to/from work), or through iTunes on my computer, or soon through AppleTV on my HDTV set in the living room.
So, with the addition of a small EyeTV 500 box, which comes with a remote control, I can do TV on the new AppleTV. Granted, its not live, but I rarely watch live TV anymore since DVR’s came on the scene. Now I schedule TV watching around my life, not the opposite.
Oh, one more thing. Using Handbrake to rip DVD’s I can import the .mpe movies into iTunes and then onto my iPod. Now through iTunes I can watch not only TV shows I’ve recorded, but all the movies I’ve ripped and stored on my hard drives also. It is not the absolute solution, but as it stands right now, it is one of the best solutions available.
RE: “And with no TV transmission, you’ll have to buy every episode of every TV series you want to watch.”
I believe the Elgato TV tuner product, which has gotten rave reviews, makes an even easier way to get HD TV content onto your Mac. Either over-the-air, or cable. A super-slick interface gives you the ability to record an entire series. or specific shows. The $129 would recoup itself in short order compared to paying $2/show.
Then you can use Apple TV to view it all on the 60″plasma in the family room.
Am I the only one who is VERY concerned about the lack of Dolby 5.1 support in this thing? What good is a movie watching device with only stereo sound? One of the main reasons we have home theater is for the sound experience.
I am bullish on Apple all the way but this seems like a gaping hole. 720p is fine – just as good as DVDs really. But the the lack of sound makes this product a big disappointment.
How does AppleTV come in at 25-percent of the price of Windows Media Center? That’s comparing an apple to full meal. AppleTV=$299. Windows Media Center PC=$1,000. Oh, AppleTV also needs a PC or a Mac, so add another $700 or so.
Ya gotta love modern math.
I think the early doubters/naysayers of Apple TV neglected two numbers that Steve Jobs mentioned in the Keynote: the iTunes Store has sold 50 million TV shows and 1.3 million movies. I’m guessing that at least some of those buyers a) would like to send them effortlessly to their TVs b) don’t write and bitch about products on blogs :p
I’m a bit stunned at the 50 million TV show number (and the 1.3 million movies in 4 months from just one studio too..but). Again, it shows the disconnect between the whole blog discussions on DRM/BitTorrent/DivX/etc.. and just regular users, who are willing to actually buy these things legally, and now are willing to buy something else to let them watch their legal purchases on their TVs. Pretty interesting stuff 🙂
[…] LINK […]
I have been waiting for this product for a long time! I placed by order after the keynote.
HOWEVER, I am gambling on the fact that Apple is planning some “big” change to their current media offering. Apple is locking us into iTunes and blocking out other media offerings. AppleTV is targeting a different market than the iPod. Those of use that can care less about carrying TV shows around, but have invested a lot of money in our entertainment systems (HDTV, Cable w HD, DVR and Netflixs etc) are not about to start buying our cable programming twice and buying movies just because they can be streamed from our Macs. I have few movies that I watch over and over again. Disney movies probably will not be one of them. Once we figure out how much we are spending on entertainment… the novelty will wear off.
I have a miglia TV mini HD and a TV Max hooked up to a Intel Mac Mini. Though they work good they have flaws. One, is no “smart” programming. You can set weekly recordings but it won’t auto-adjust the time if there is a special episode or extended episode. To me, this is a huge flaw and I’v let Miglia and EyeTV know.
But my point is, the Apple TV is awesome for the sole reason that it easily get’s all this great content from my Mac mini to my TV without me having to put it in my entertainment unit. I have cable with it’s own DVR. But for myself it is nice to download shows or seasons from iTunes (commercial free) that look great and just stream them over when I want to. Or show off photos or listen to music. I really love watching podcasts on it with other geek friends. This is where the Apple TV shines. I’ll be able to go over to my Dads and show him stuff without having to wip out cables and crap. Also, I have a good 12 movies on each one of my macs. This will make it alot easier to pull those up and watch them.
Personally I think it’s brilliant for what it does. I do think they could shave $150 off the price tag though. It should be half what they are selling it for. The technology in it doesn’t even warrant that price tag. But, Apple knows we will pay it. If they have to, they’ll lower the price later, probably $100 or so with bumped specs but they’ll make a nice profit for now because the Apple TV does have a place in users homes.
I have a hard time understanding why I would pay $299 so that I can pay more money to get movies and TV shows from iTunes. Don’t get me wrong — I love Macs, love Apple. But wouldn’t it make more sent to GIVE AWAY an Apple TV in exchange for something like $300 in iTunes purchases? That’s the way printers work. The printer itself is cheap (sometimes free), because the real money is made from ink/toner cartridges. Apple would make much faster progress by putting the Apple TV box at the $50 price range, or giving it away with a $300 iTunes gift certificate purchase.
“Apple TV is succeeding where Windows XP Media Center has failed due to its simplicity and considerably lower price.”?!
Ok, that pretty much pretty much answers my question about whether it is worth reading this blog or not. -Not!
Apple TV is not a competitor to XP media center. Apple TV is a media extender to a Mac or a PC, much like the Xbox 360 is a media extender to an MCE box. Apple TV + a stock Mac will not allow you to record TV. A 360 + MCE will. Apple TV without a computer cannot access the ITunes music store to buy or download anything (as announced by Steve). The 360 without a computer can access the Live market place and buy and download shows / rent movies oh and play killer games.
Apple TV minus a computer is a hunk of electronics that will do basically nothing. An Xbox 360 minus a computer does a heck of a lot. Oh and it also plays games.
I’m not saying Apple TV is not a good product, or that it won’t be successful. And I am certainly not saying that Live Market place is anywhere near the same ballpark as the ITunes store. But I am saying that you are comparing two things that are not even close in purpose and that is sloppy.
I like my ‘tech’ blogs to have at least some attention to the accuracy of the details of the ‘tech’ they discuss.
Bye.
“How does AppleTV come in at 25-percent of the price of Windows Media Center? That’s comparing an apple to full meal. AppleTV=$299. Windows Media Center PC=$1,000. Oh, AppleTV also needs a PC or a Mac, so add another $700 or so.”
It the same argument people use to complain that the iMac cost to much only reversed. The AppleTV is for people that ALREADY HAVE a PC, a TV, a cable box or satellite dish, a DVD player, etc. Rather than buy a whole nother Media Center PC, just buy the AppleTV peripheral at 1/4 the price.
If you don’t ALREADY HAVE a PC, then you might as well buy a Media Center PC, except for one thing: Wouldn’t you rather have a laptop? You can use the AppleTV with a laptop, because the AppleTV / PC connection is WIRELESS.
The AppleTV will succeed because there is more to watch on the Internet than just “movies and TV shows”. The amount of alternative video on the ‘net will only increase as time goes on.
If you just want to watch movies and TV shows, stick with cable or Netflix. You don’t need an AppleTV. AppleTV isn’t for everybody, and it doesn’t need to be in order to succeed. As the macbooker pointed out, some people like iTunes enough to use it.
I was watching about 2 hours of TV a week, one hour of broadcast and one hour of SciFi channel. I dropped the cable, and only watch the one hour of broadcast now. $46/month was a little steep for one show on SciFi channel. I figure I’ll just wait till the end of the season and buy the DVD. Course, the only DVD player I have is my iBook. If I didn’t want to wait till the end of the season – I could buy the show off iTunes.
I won’t get the AppleTV because I have a 24″ wide screen monitor, which from 2’ away looks like a 50″ TV and has more pixels. If I had a 50″ TV, I might feel differently.
That’s great news!
I like the idea of Apple TV (@TV), as I should, since I’ve been using the concept for a long time.
I have a desktop in the house, and airport express base stations handle my network needs. My MBP sits above my living room TV, and handles all my viewing needs from itunes via frontrow. The only downside is that shared video from the desktop itunes library to the MBP over 802.11g isn’t very stable (I have to move the files to the MBP first).
In this situation, the @TV takes over the role, and does a better job.
******
In the case of needing DVR functionality, TiVo does a fairly good job at this point for me, rather than a @TV, since I get my TV and movies via cable/HBO rather than Apple’s iTMS.
TiVo’s monthly fee basically get’s you improved guide data. All the features of TiVo stem from having improved guide data over and above what is available through free services like TitanTV.
With the TiVo, you get dual tuner DVR capabilites (vs. Elgato single tuner), iTunes music and photo sharing, podcasts, and unencrypted video viewing (assuming you can convert to MPEG-2 with something like ffmepgx). What you don’t get is protected iTunes video, or HDTV (the new HD TiVo series 3 doesn’t allow the transfer of video from a Mac, the old SD TiVo Series 2 does).
With a mac, @TV, and an elgato like device… you get weaker scheduling capabilities (due to the limits of free guide data), single tuner recording, and the ability to watch both iTMS video and any video you can compress (with something like ffmepgx) to iTunes compatible H.264.
The choice is mainly in your video content requirements and buying habits. If iTMS plus over the air broadcasts provide the video content you want, then @TV may be for you. But if your major video sources come from cable or satellite, and you watch to watch multiple things airing at the same time, a TiVo may still be the better way to go at this point. Either way, both provide a great UI to your non-video Mac content.
*****
It’s a shame that @TV doesn’t include something like Elgato’s EyeTV software and @TV’s USB port wasn’t made to accept an Elgato USB tuner … that would make the Mac users frustrated with TiVo’s glacial Mac support stand up and take notice.
I pre-ordered on just after Jobs’ keynote address. It’s true that this is a cheap and nifty little peice of hardware and should be a lot of fun. The one thing that I think Apple missed the boat on is (it seems anyway) that it will be impossible to put the AV signal from iChat on a television via Apple TV. Right now I hook up (wired) my laptop to my television and iChat with my mother (that way my daughters (two toddlers) can easily see and hear her and they can’t get to the computer). I was hoping AppleTV would be able to wirelessly handle the iChat signal and thus save me the hooking and unhooking.
Okay I buy an Apple TV, then Movies, and then external Hard Drives to store those movies. No thanks, I basically like the Apple TV because I can controll the content but I won’t buy one unless iTunes Music Store provides an option to rent movies.
great blog!
i would love to see AppleTV to perform better than Media Center although Apple not popular here!
I buy an Apple TV too.
T. said: “vs. Elgato single tuner”
Actually Elgato’s EyeTV Diversity product is a dual tuner digital TV receiver.
You can also hook up multiple EyeTV units to the one Mac to allow even more simultaneous channels. I have 2 EyeTV tuners on my lounge-room media centre Mac and at one point had 3 running, enabling me to record from 3 separate channels simultaneously.
-Mart
Why would anybody compare Apple Tv to Windows Media Center? Apple TV is just a means to allow me to watch my content stored on my computer on my television. You need a computer for that to work. Media Center on the other hand, is a fancy PC designed to control all your media needs, including recording television.
Moreover, comparing the X-Box to Apple TV is not correct either, as the X-Box does not play any content stored on a separate computer using wireless technology. Instead, it downloads the content directly, or uses its DVD player to pull in the content. I am not saying that is bad, but it is not extending the reach of a separate computer.
Many people want to be able to send content from their computers to their televisions easily. Apple TV solves that problem. Microsoft announced a competing product that has not yet shipped, but the X-Box and the Media Center do not do the same thing.
Currently, Apple TV is a unique product, that many people may not have a need for. For people who have a lot of media content on their computers and want to use their computers as media hubs, the Apple Tv probably fits the bill nicely.
PS
Elgato makes a nice product that nicely compliments any Mac. Again, a different product, more akin to some of the features offered on a media center PC.
[…] by koolio on January 26th, 2007 Apparently, orders for the Apple TV are through the roof: “Specifically, orders have already exceeded the […]
[…] Apple Recon reports that orders for the recently announced Apple TV have already exceeded the original 100,000 unit order that Apple had placed with Inventec, and Apple is preparing to place a second order for twice that number. According to the site, Apple now expects to sell over a million Apple TV devices leading up to the 2007 holiday season, and at least that many again during the Thanksgiving – Christmas period. Apple TV is succeeding where Windows XP Media Center has failed due to its simplicity and considerably lower price. It is odd to consider Apple to be in a value market, but strangely, that is exactly what Apple TV has become. You see, its competitor is not the various network vendor products, as they come no where close to the interface and simplicity of the Apple TV; further, they don’t have the iTunes store behind them providing content. Apple TV competes directly with Windows XP Media Center, and comes in at 25% of the price! While Windows XP Media Center has become a replacement for the terrible Windows XP Home, the actual sales of devices destined to be connected to TVs in family rooms, has been very poor. Their high price, along with the mess of patching, securing and maintaining a full Windows PC in the living room is not a very attractive proposition. […]
That’s pretty amazing. I think that Apple TV is just what the consumer has been looking for. The next step after TiVO, if you will. I’m looking forward to seeing the next version of apple tv, which will hopefully offer MUCH more storage.
http://www.applehdtv.net
The Apple TV is going to be amazing. I found a community already, if your going to get one check it out. http://www.appletvusers.com
The AppleTV will go nicely with my new widescreen tv. Can’t wait!
Unless the thing supports DivX.. I can’t see too many of my friends or myself being interested. If it supported DivX, I would have one on order now and be extolling its virtues everywhere.
[…] source: http://applerecon.com/2007/01/24/apple-tv-blowing-away-expectations […]
Do you actually have ANY SOURCES to your data here? I couldn’t find ANYTHING that substantiates it other than your claim that “a friend told you.” If he’d said 300K, would you report that as “news” too? He wants to sell a million? Not really surprising, I’d want the same thing.
You should AT LEAST write “rumor” in your headline if you can’t back up the story with facts.
The XBOX 360 (which is the direct competitor to Apple TV) and XBOX Live, simply blows away Apple TV:
• Within four months of launching, Xbox Live has become the No. 1 online distributor of television and feature-film content in the living room, where it’s most easy for consumers to access.
• In the same four months, the service has quickly become the No. 2 online distributor of television and feature-film content, second to iTunes.
• It is currently the only online distributor of major feature films and television programming in high-definition (HD) resolution. (Apple TV doesn’t do full HD)
• “The service is a breakout success, with double-digit, month-over-month growth since launching.
• Monthly downloads from Xbox Live went up 400 percent since the service launched in November.
Oh, did I mention, the BOX 360 has already sold 11.5 million units worldwide, and XBOX Live already has 6 million signed up members?
Not to mention the XBOX 360 plays super games , like “Gears of War”, “Oblivion”, “GRAW2” , “Rainbow Six Vegas ” etc .
And you get all this for just $300, the same price as the overpriced Apple TV, which can’t even do half of what the XBOX 360 can do.
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I think AppleTV is great.
It means that the shows we produce and distribute for free into iTunes as video podcasts can bwe watched on a TV, video iPod, PC and of course Mac.
Pretty cool, if you ask me.
Cheers
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AppleTV will have something going for it if XBMC gets ported to it.
I’ve been using XBMC on my xbox for a couple months now, and it’s awesome. With support for playing all the audio file and video file types (flac is my main requirement), I think it’s the most functional media player out there. It support internet television, shoutcast radio stations, apple’s movie trailers, has some youtube plugins, local weather lookup, as well as many others, I can’t find anything else that compares to it.
AppleTV will be much stronger if they get an XBMC port, otherwise AppleTV just doesn’t bring anything to the table (other than no fan noise, which is nice). I mean seriously, it may have menus in HD, but a 1Ghz processor can’t handle an actual HD video. If they upgrade the processor to something that could handle MY HD content and there’s an XBMC port for it, I’m there. Until then, its an easy to configure yet more expensive media extender which supports Apple’s choice codecs – with menus in HD of course.
Just for fun, here’s the list of supported file types:
– MPEG-1 (VCD/MPG/DAT) and MPEG-2 (MPEG/SVCD/DVD/VOB/DV/TY) video
– MPEG-4 ASP: DivX;-) 3.11, OpenDivX 4.0, DivX 5.x (Pro), and XviD 1.0.x video
– MPEG-4 AVC – Advanced Video Coding (H.264): Nero Digital AVC video codec
– Windows Media Video v7, v8 and v9 (MSMpeg4/WMV v1, v2 & v3) (WMV9 via DLL’s)
– RealVideo: 1.0, 2.0 (RealPlayer G2), 3.0 (RealPlayer 8) and 4.0 (RealPlayer 9)
– RealAudio codecs: 1.0 (14.4), 2.0 (28.8), SIPRO, COOK, DNET and ATRAC3
– QuickTime 5.0, 6.0, 6.3 video and audio codecs (QDMC / QDM2) (via QT DLL’s)*
– 3ivx D4 / 3vi1 MPEG-4 video (inc. MSZH/ZLIB Compressed-Header containers)*
– Sorenson v1/v3 (SVQ1/SVQ3) QuickTime video
– Apple Graphics (SMC) video
– Theora Video (VP3) video
– On2 Technologies VP4 (VP4.0), VP5 (VP5.0), and VP6 (VP6.2) (all via On2 DLL’s)*
– On2 Technologies VP3 (VP3.0 and VP3.2) video
– Intel Indeo 3.1/3.2 (Indeo3)
– NuppelVideo (NUV)
– VIVO 1.0 and 2.0 (VIV)
– ITU H.261 video
– Creative Labs YUV (CYUV) video
– Supermac Cinepak (CVID) video
– ASUS V1 (ASV1) and ASUS V2 (ASV2) video
– Autodesk FLI and FLC Animation
– WAV and PCM audio format
– MPEG-audio layer 1, 2, and 3 (MP1, MP2 and MP3)
– OGG (Ogg Vorbis audio codec)
– WMA – Windows Media Audio v1 and v2 (WMA1/2 / DivX Audio v1/v2)
– WMA – Windows Media Audio v9 (WMA9) (via WMA9 DLL’s)
– AC3 (Dolby Digital) 2.0, 5.1 and 7.1 audio in video AC3 pass-through (S/PDIF-out)
– AC3 (Dolby Digital) 2.0 and 5.1 audio in video software decoded to stereo analog-out
– DTS (Digital Theater Sound) 48Khz audio in DVD-Video (DTS digital pass-through)
– DTS (DTS and DTS-WAV) 44.1Khz/48Khz audio in DVD-Video (software decoded)*
– AAC – Advanced Audio Coding (Profiles: HE, Main, LC, LTP & LD, + ER)
– M4A and MP4 (MPEG-4 Audio) (including Nero Digital MP4) *****
– FLAC (Free Lossless Audio Codec) audio
– BMP picture/image
– JPG/JPEG picture/image
– GIF picture/image
– PNG picture/image
– TIF/TIFF picture/image
– TGA picture/image
– PCX picture/image
– ICO picture/image
– SID (Commodore 64 tunes) audio
– Tracker Mod’s audio, see list bellow:
(MOD/AMF/669/DMF/DSM/FAR/GDM/IMF/IT/M15/MED/OKT/S3M/STM/SFX/ULT/UNI/XM)
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